Analysis of the Super-Six stage :
The points carried by various teams from the group stage.
Australia - 12 points
Kenya - 10 points
India - 8 points
Sri Lanka - 7.5 points
New Zealand - 4 points
Zimbabwe - 3.5 points
Assuming the two relative minnows, Kenya and Zimbabwe, cause no real upsets ... what we have is Australia, India and Sri Lanka through to the semis while the fourth spot would be fought between New Zealand and Kenya.
For New Zealand to come to the semis, they require to beat two teams. Assuming one is Zimbabwe, it is imperative that they beat either India or Australia.
I guess the last time NZ played the Aussies, it was in the VB Series and they beat them in 3 of the 4 matches played. I therefore feel that although the Aussies would be wary of them, they would also be keen to get one back. Shane Bond's form would be the key as far as the NZ are concerned.
Given their recent record against India, NZ should be very confident but on batting-friendlier pitches it could be a totally different story. India, I am sure would be looking to avenge their recent losses to NZ and march into the Semis in emphatic style.
In case NZ lose to both Aus and Ind and rain doesn't interrupt any of the games, the points should look like
Australia - 24 (beats all) or Australia - 20 (loses to SL)
India - 20 (beats all)
Sri Lanka - 11.5 (loses to Aus and Ind) or Sri Lanka - 15.5 (loses only to Ind)
Kenya - 10 (loses to all)
New Zealand - 8 (loses to Aus and Ind)
Zimbabwe - 7.5 (loses to SL and NZ)
OR
Australia - 24 (beats all) or Australia - 20 (loses to SL)
India - 16 (loses only to SL)
Sri Lanka - 15.5 (loses only to Aus) or Sri Lanka - 19.5 (beats all)
Kenya - 10 (loses to all)
New Zealand - 8 (loses to Aus and Ind)
Zimbabwe - 7.5 (loses to SL and NZ)
i.e. there is a distinct possibility that Kenya enter the Semi Final (even though they lose all their Super Six games) ...
Anybody bold enough to bet on this scenario ??? The chances are quite good, I suppose.
The rivalry between Sri Lanka and Australia is intense as well, but the result of that game would not have any significant impact on New Zealand's chances. Sri Lanka beat the Aussies in the semi-final of the ICC Champions Trophy, but that was in the sub-continent. Australia would definitely start the favourites in the game on the 7th.
India had to share the ICC Champions trophy with the Lankans even though India looked well placed to win both the 'finals'. In all probablity, India and Sri Lanka would meet twice, once in Super Six and once again in the Semi Finals, while Australia would take on either Kenya or New Zealand. Zimbabwe, unfortunately, look completely out of it for now.
Stranger things have happened though, just hope the weather doesn't play any further part in this World Cup !!!
Cheers !!!
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