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One-Day Mataram

Deconstructing the gentleman's game


A win against Sri Lanka will see India through

For India, the good news from the Sri Lanka V Bangladesh match is that Sri Lanka defeated Bangladesh by a whopping margin of 198 runs. This has caused Bangladesh's Net Run Rate (NRR) to drop down to -2.004. Lets see what this means for India.

Of course, India has to win against Sri Lanka in order to feel fairly secure about qualifying for the next round. But the pressure of scoring a big win against Sri Lanka has been taken out of the equation. Indians can stay at their current NRR or even drop it a notch and yet Bangladesh will find it extremely difficult to go past India in the NRR race.

If India manages a win against Sri Lanka by the narrowest of margins i.e. by hitting the winning run off the last ball (i.e. India chasing) or a win by one run in 50 overs (i.e. India batting first), India's NRR will end up being something close to +1.714. If India wins comfortably i.e. by chasing down the SL score in less than 50 overs or by winning by a bigger run margin, then India's NRR will definitely by more than +1.714.

Taking the least NRR i.e. +1.714, lets see how Bangladesh will have to fare against Bermuda. Bangladesh will have to at least achieve a Net Run Rate of +1.714 after their match against Bermuda in order to pip India to the post (because with NRR tied, the fact that Bangladesh beat India will carry them to the next round, knocking India out of the tournament). Based on the quick calculations I have done on my notepad, if Bermuda bat first, then whatever be the target they set, Bangladesh will not be able to qualify even if they manage to achieve the target in any number of overs! Good news for India, I bet!

Even if Bangladesh bat first and mount an unlikely score of 400 and bundle out Bermuda for 100... or even 50, the Net Run Rate for Bangladesh will not come close to India's NRR of +1.714.

The bottomline is... if India wins against Sri Lanka on Friday, they go through to the Super Eight stage, no matter what heroics Bangladesh manage against Bermuda! If however, India loses its match to Sri Lanka, it still can qualify for the next stage if (and only if) Bermuda pull a miracle out of the blue and beat Bangladesh!

A point to note is... Sri Lanka, obviously, won't need to win (against India) in order to qualify because they've already done that! But a loss to India will mean that Sri Lanka would enter the Super Eight stage without any points... not something that Tom Moody or Mahela Jayawardena would be amused about! ;-)

4 Responses to “A win against Sri Lanka will see India through”

  1. # Blogger Huzaifa

    Hi Sameer

    I came across your blog a while back and enjoy reading your posts (even though you've been MIA recently :-). I think you have good perspectives and insights - not just on this post, but in general.

    I'm the sports editor for Desicritics.org and I’d like to invite you to be a Desicritic - Check this link- http://desicritics.org/2006/01/25/205846.php - and get in touch if you're interested.

    Thanks
    Huzaifa  

  2. # Blogger Aditya

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  4. # Anonymous sunny

    Look some facts about Sri Lanka places:)  

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