One-Day Mataram

Deconstructing the gentleman's game

India's path to Super Eight is very difficult

In their loss to an exuberant and bold Bangladesh side, the Indian team (flat and knotted up with tension) created possibly the worst possible scenario for themselves in Group B!

Looking at the remaining matches in the group, one cannot help but notice that India's path to the next round has become difficult... almost impossible! Lets look at a probable scenario with the following results...

India beat Bermuda
Sri Lanka beat Bangladesh
India beat Sri Lanka
Bangladesh beat Bermuda

This would result in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and India having 4 points each. But Bangladesh, having beaten India, would be placed above India in the points table. And all would come down to winning margins. For India to be able to qualify for the Super Eights stage, Sri Lanka would need to beat Bangladesh by a narrow margin and India would need beat Sri Lanka by a huge margin. And even this scenario assumes that India beat Bermuda by an obscene margin!

Just going through the above scenario makes it pretty much clear that the probability of it panning out as described is quite low. Given the form they showed against Bangladesh, the assumption that India would beat Sri Lanka (by any sort of margin) requires a big leap of faith! Also, given the form that Sri Lanka are in, it may happen that they beat Bangladesh by a comfortable margin.

Whew! ... India has really painted itself into a corner! And they not only need to play like tigers to get out of that corner, but also keep hoping that other matches follow a pattern favourable for them! An absolutely rare case of ability and hope converging!

But then... as they say... if you believe in something hard enough, the entire universe will conspire to make it happen!

2 Responses to “India's path to Super Eight is very difficult”

  1. # Anonymous Abhijeet

    Well, what makes it most difficult is that the last group game is Bangladesh vs Bermuda and even assuming that everything else goes pretty much as required for India, Bangladesh would know exactly what is required of them in the last match.

    It's only India who's to blame for her miseries.  

  2. # Blogger Sameer

    Abhijeet>> Absolutely!... that's why I said, it'll need a rare combination of India's 'ability' (to win all their remaining matches with handsome margins) and 'hope' (that other teams would obligingly perform in a way that helps India) to converge! :)

    Basically, one can say that a team that is afraid of losing is the one that invariably finds itself on the losing side! India was such a team yesterday!  

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